Based on conversations with several CIOs about their biggest challenges (and hopes) as they look ahead to 2026, I learned some unexpected things along the way. What I learnt challenges much of the prevailing wisdom from AI prognosticators.

Here are 10 surprising, and perhaps controversial, predictions based on these conversations that point to where our industry may truly be headed.

1. AI will increase complexity before it reduces it

What most people aren’t seeing today is the potential for AI to help with the harder stages of the enterprise software development lifecycle. They are overindexing on the build phase, but creating bottlenecks downstream in quality control, security, maintenance, and updates.

2026 will be the year IT teams turn their focus to containing and auditing ungoverned AI-generated apps and agents. Those who use AI to systematically govern their full portfolio will be the first to realize the true potential of AI-driven development.

2. Most AI agents will fail in production

Demos of autonomous AI agents are spectacular. Unfortunately, these demos crumble when they meet an enterprise production environment, and this is likely to get worse soon.Most autonomous agents will need tight orchestration layers and human-in-the-loop controls. In other words, they’ll need new platforms. Autonomy only works in fantasy. It’s orchestration that wins in reality.

3. The enterprise winners will be platforms, not models

The days when every company was racing to build their own LLM have passed. While a handful of big LLMs will dominate the mass market for consumer AI, enterprise leaders will be able to choose among more specialized options and even develop agents that connect to more than one LM for different scenarios. Owning the model matters less than owning the lifecycle.

4. AI will shift value from feature delivery to system integrity

The risks (data leaks, hallucinations, policy violations etc.)of unmanaged AI running rampant without enterprise-grade guardrails are too great to ignore.The ability to ensure correctness at scale becomes more important than the ability to generate software. The market will reward platforms that can ensure AI-driven systems behave as intended, every single time.

5. Shadow AI will become a bigger problem than shadow IT ever was

The fact that non-technical users can generate production code and workflows with LLMs is far more dangerous than unauthorized SaaS adoption. Without any oversight at all, a business user with an unvetted LLM can generate production-level code, create autonomous workflows, or exfiltrate sensitive enterprise data. This risk is insidious, viral, and incalculable.

6. CIOs will spend more on control and governance, not less

AI promises deflation even in the face of inference costs. But the reality will be re-inflation of IT budgets to offset New security layers, New model oversight, New compliance obligations, and New skills

The real opportunity

To recap, the future of software development is one where:

– AI accelerates output

– SaaS and bundled software lose their grip on the enterprise

– Architecture, security, and governance get harder

– Platforms that manage complexity gain relevance

– Enterprise value shifts from code to lifecycle management

– Non-tech companies will manage a growing portfolio of software IP

– The future belongs to platforms that help them bring order to AI-generated chaos.